According to media reports, the Secretary General of China Construction Machinery Industry Association revealed that the 12th Five-Year Plan for the construction machinery industry has been reported to the relevant state departments and will be released in July. We believe that the release of the industry's “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” will point the way for the development of construction machinery in the next five years, which will help to enhance the market's confidence in the long-term growth of construction machinery.
1. The whole industry will continue to achieve steady growth: At the end of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, that is, the sales revenue of the construction machinery industry is expected to reach 900 billion yuan in 2015, with an average annual compound growth rate of 17%, of which the industry export volume will reach 26 billion. The dollar accounts for nearly 20% of exports. Although compared with the growth rates of 21.3% and 28.1% in 2001-2005 and 2006-2010, the industry growth rate during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period has slowed significantly. However, we believe that after nearly a decade of peak growth, the market is generally worried that the construction machinery market is saturated and difficult to achieve growth, and the introduction of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” will enhance the market's confidence in the long-term growth of construction machinery to a certain extent. .
2. The growth performance of each product will reflect a big difference: from the 12 products counted by industry associations, benefiting from the increase in permeability, the future of concrete cranes represented by tower cranes and concrete pump trucks, concrete The five-year compound annual growth rate of the mixer truck is expected to reach more than 15%; wheeled cranes, crawler cranes, graders and pavers are expected to achieve steady growth, with a compound annual growth rate of more than 10% in the next five years; and road rollers and loaders. Due to the large increase in market holdings and substitution effects, the growth rate of bulldozers is slower, and the average compound growth rate in the next five years will only maintain a single-digit growth;3. The development of core components will be upgraded to a new level: the lag of critical infrastructure components is the bottleneck restricting the long-term competitiveness of Chinese construction machinery. In the past decade, market demand has been strong, the company has been focused on the rapid expansion of host capacity to meet market demand, the development of key components and basic processes has been lagging behind. We believe that with the intensification of industry competition during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, the development of core components is expected to be upgraded to a new height. It is expected that government-led, industry associations will lead the joint breakthrough and achieve quality. Leap 4) Industry restructuring and mergers and acquisitions are expected to accelerate: We believe that with the new round of capacity expansion since 2010, overcapacity may become a key factor constraining the market development in the mid-to-late period of the 12th Five-Year Plan. In the next five years, leading enterprises in the industry are expected to use their own advantages to expand the product chain and market layout through mergers and acquisitions, eliminate backwardness through low-level repeated construction through market competition mechanism, and greatly increase industrial concentration.
Contact: Wendy Jiang
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